2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: Q1

2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

1st Quarter

Real estate in the Truckee-Tahoe region continues to exude optimism with posting a very strong opening quarter to 2017 despite challenges from road closures, power outages and other events created by prolific winter snowfall.

Results from Q1 were remarkably similar to those of the same period in 2016; a year that would become arguably the best ever for property in this region. Median price leapt 14% year over year while total sales trailed by 7% indicative of tight inventory. Year-to-date sales volume totaled nearly $250,000,000 foretelling a 5^th consecutive $1 billion year. 

Luxury sales followed a predictable course as ski resort properties experienced the immediate dividends of near historic snowfall. The Village at Northstar doubled the number of transactions during Q1, 2016 and has nearly equaled the total for the preceding 12 months in just the first quarter of this year. Northstar Mountainside saw explosive growth as its Stellar Townhomes have sold through nearly all available residences with momentum building around other slopeside properties.

Martis Camp sold the last of its 671 developer homesites completed among the more remarkable runs of luxury sales throughout the country in recent times. An additional 9 homes have transacted in Martis Camp during Q1 at an average price of $3,864,642.  

A seasonal outlier during this period was the sale of two lakefront sales on Tahoe’s West Shore. At $13,975,000 and $15,000,000 these represent two of the top ten sales ever recorded on the California side and, but for a $17,500,000 sale in September, 2016, the highest individual transactions since 2014.  In addition to the rare 8-digit pricing of these transaction, completed such transactions, for which land value is paramount, amidst head-height walls of snow is extraordinary. Despite the pendulum having swung dramatically toward newer, amenitized communities in recent years, lakefront property remains the pinnacle of Tahoe homeownership.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Lahontan Market Update - 2016 Year in Review

Lahontan Market Update - 2016 Year in Review

 

Lahontan is by far the best combination of value, quality, amenities and overall setting in the Tahoe region. As the "original" gated resort community in the Tahoe/Truckee area, Lahontan over the years has maintained its identity and understated elegance. There has been a marked appreciation of both land and single home properties over the last few years. 2016 stats leaped ahead in home sales vs 2015, while also hitting price/sq foot highs specifically in new construction offerings.
 
The demand for new construction options in Lahontan is strong with few options for buyers to choose from. In fact, many new construction projects secure buyers before going to market. The Lahontan story in 2017 undoubtedly will be focused on new construction demand again, with many new spec options slated to be completed and ready for sale. Land prices remain extremely reasonable (and likely undervalued) in comparison to neighboring Martis Camp. 

In 2015, there were 15 home sales at an average price of just over $2M. The highest price/square foot sale recorded at $667/SF and there were only 2 new construction homes available for sale. One was sold in less than 30 days, one was sold prior to hitting the market.  In 18 land transactions, the highest priced sale was at $475K. Investors and spec builders were responsible for a good chunk of the land sales recognizing the huge need in the market for updated inventory.

Lahontan home sales jumped up by about 60% in 2016 with 25 single family home transactions. The average closing price was just above 2015 numbers at $2,025,000. There were 4 newer construction options in 2016, 3 of which achieved new heights on the sold price/square foot spectrum. All 3 closed over $700/sq ft and the most paid was $747/SF. The last time there was a comp anywhere near that high $/SF was in 2008.  Land transactions were up by 39% from 2015, with the highest comp at $455K. What continues to stand out is that price of a premium lot in Lahontan is half of what it would cost for an "average" site at Martis Camp. And this logic isn't lost on Lahontan consumers.
 
There is certainly still room to grow in the Lahontan market. For the quality of home and setting that can be found at Lahontan, properties are still undervalued. Anticipate an opportunistic market in 2017 for buyers, sellers, and contractors alike. The demand and absorption of new and updated construction will continue to drive Lahontan values up, and the available "new" inventory in 2017 should substantially increase. There is quite a bit of pent up demand specific to Lahontan and buyers will need to have a close pulse on the market to be ahead of game for the type of property they desire.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: December 2016

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

December 2016 

November, 2016 was a notable month for many reasons; most larger than Tahoe-Truckee real estate activity. Nevertheless, the month produced a historical number of real estate closings. 142 transactions are the most for any November period on record, which continues an unseasonably strong 4^th quarter. By contrast, 132 residential transactions occurred in November 2014 and 125 in 2015. 

Recognizing that this data is indicative of market conditions 30-45 days past when these originally contracted, election-related volatility is not reflected. Studying newly pending sales over the past month in comparison to the same period a year ago, the market appears on a continued ascent but for a very minor blip during Election Week:

The composition of these transactions has followed a seasonal trend as premium sales resulting from peak tourist activity swoons ahead of ski season. With no lakefront property or Martis Camp homes trading, average price dropped to $671,302; nearly a third below peak summer months. Median price remained steady at $560,000 delineative of a greater volume of primary and sub-premium transactions.

15% of all transactions in November may be classified as “luxury” having exceeded $1,000,000. Of these, nearly half were found in ski communities including Squaw Valley, Alpine Meadows, Northstar and Sugar Bowl signaling a shift toward winter product typical of the season.

December and January are typically the quietest months of any year as retail activity in November and December is minimal. The chart above indicates that it is likely for these months to outperform historical averages. Early snow, a strong economy, and perhaps some urgency relative to rising interest rates are driving showing activity during an otherwise quiet period.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Tahoe Truckee Market Update - April, 2014

Tahoe Truckee Market Update

April, 2014

Spring has delivered its typical confusing weather to the Tahoe region, supplying one of the most significant snowstorms of the year followed by an extended run of perfect, 70 degree days. With the closing of ski season and oncoming of golf, hiking and biking season, a shorter-than-usual transition period appears imminent.

The Tahoe – Truckee real estate market has not missed a beat with a flurry of sales activity in the month of April. In total, 93 residential properties closed escrow producing $64,878,510 in sales volume.  The luxury segment continues to be in high demand with 16% of total sales coming from the $1 million and above price segment. 

With the rapid economic growth of our Northern California feeder market and their unyielding desire for a retreat in a beautiful environment, the fundamentals of Lake Tahoe Real Estate are nearly as strong as they have ever been. The introduction of communities that cater to the changing demographics of our consumer continue to thrive as evidenced by four sales within Northstar Mountainside including three Home Run Residences ($1,800,000 - $2,205,000) and another Ritz –Carlton Residence ($2,750,000). With two additional sales pending, Home Run has just four homes remaining. Similarly, The Ritz-Carlton Residences are now past the halfway point in sales.

Martis Camp produced two sales of “cabin” properties in April from $2,960,000 - $3,000,000 and continues to have steady stream of homesite sales and construction starts on new luxury homes.

While 93 sales represent a slight decrease from the same month in 2013, this is easily attributed to the scarcity of available property for sale.  In fact, 93 closings nearly mirror the 9-year average for transactions in April.

The first quarter of 2014 saw explosive growth in values; an increase of 30% year over year based upon a remarkable run of sales within elite-tier properties including Tahoe lakefronts and top quality resort homes. While values continue to rise, the overall market is showing a statistical regression to the mean as more low and middle-tier homes come on the market and quickly sell.  In April, the average sales price of $695,000 represents a 7% increase over the same month in 2013. Median price has improved 17% over the previous 12-month period.

This “normalizing” is neither negative nor unexpected.  Current inventory for the overall market is a perfectly balanced 6-months supply, a slight increase over previous months that is typical of the period immediately following ski season.  When segmented by price, inventory below $1,000,000 has just 4 months stock. This short supply allows luxury sales to carry an even greater weight in representing the performance of Lake Tahoe Real Estate.

  

Steady progress is forecast for the coming months with 187 properties pending sale at a median asking price of $452,850. This is nearly identical to the April median sales price which was led by a number of lakefront properties ranging from $3,150,000 - $7,900,000 in addition to the Home Run sales mentioned above. The expiration of ski leases and changing of seasons often results in increased listing activity. Spring arrived sooner than usual this year prompting this cycle to begin early.

A glorious summer is in the making whether measured miles of trail or real estate sales. Tahoe Mountain Resorts will continue to be your resource for all things Tahoe.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012