March 2019 - Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

Abundant snowfall has impaired the ability of many would-be consumers to visit the region deferring purchasing decisions to spring. This may cause a slower than usual March; a time when winter sales often find their greatest stride before a shoulder season lull.

Regardless, large snowfall typically casts a prominent light on slopeside real estate. Northstar currently shows 6 properties pending sale including 3 in the Mountainside neighborhood. Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows add 5 and 2 pending sales respectively.  With a long spring assured, ample time will exist for spring skiing and real estate tours alike. 

Year-to-date, the 2019 market correction has been a gentle one for the Tahoe-Truckee region. The total number of transactions has been almost identical to the same period in 2018 despite enduring polar opposite winter conditions. Similarly, median price is within .6% of the same period last year while inventory remains modest at 3.5 months’ supply.

Notable among transactions recorded in February 2019 is the geographic distribution, or lack thereof, when compared to last February.

2019 premium transactions include homes in Martis Camp (4; $3,999,535 - $6,700,000), Lahontan (4; $2,250,000 - $4,750,000), Northstar (2; $1,870,000 - $2,935,000) plus Squaw Valley, Tahoe Donner and other residential areas of Truckee. Lakeside homes are not represented above $1 million but for a single transaction, the 15^th largest in the region for the month. While it is not uncommon for lakeside interest to peak in summer months, the extremity of this data set is remarkable.

In contract, last February saw 9 transactions greater than $1 million in lakeside communities contrasted by 3 in Northstar, and one in each of Lahontan, Martis Camp, Tahoe Donner and Alpine Meadows.

The chart below shows the ratio of sales in Truckee based communities versus those in the Tahoe Basin (California; North and West Shores).

While more product exists in Truckee, the chart shows a strong progression toward premium purchases in newer communities.  

This phenomenon is the continuation of a gradual evolution whereby newer, highly amenitized communities are valued at a significant premium over dated, though classically designed, Tahoe product. In addition to contemporary homes, the explosion in popularity of jet travel to and from the Truckee airport has been a boon for those communities most proximate including Martis Camp, Lahontan, Schaffers Mill, Northstar, Old Greenwood and Gray’s Crossing.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

Q1 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

The convergence of several different narratives meld together to explain the performance of real estate in the Tahoe-Truckee region during the first quarter of 2018.

Economic:  A surging Northern California economy continues to deliver robust demand for second homes.

Supply:  Historically low supply has shifted negotiating power into the seller’s favor creating upward pressure on prices.

Environmental:  A peculiar winter delivered low snow in the early season; a scenario that actually facilitated greater real estate activity than during the previous winter when abundant snowfall hampered access.  Tremendous late-season snow inspired visitation from would-be consumers under optimal conditions.

The convergence of these factors resulted in the strongest ever first quarter for Tahoe-Truckee real estate based upon a number of different metrics. Total residential sales grew 6% over the same period a year prior while total dollar volume leapt by 19%; indicative of a greater number of premium homes selling. In fact, 83 homes traded at prices greater than $1 million, 53% more than during the same period in 2017 driving average price up 12% to $971,767.

The luxury segment is driving both volume and price as premium, modern homes provide an opportunity for instant gratification to wealthy consumers. Martis Camp and Lahontan are two communities that embody this trend in particular. Martis Camp has been setting new benchmarks for an extended period of time. In Q1, 2018 that community saw 11 homes close escrow up from an already robust 7 in the first quarter of the prior year.  Lahontan, a community in which the dichotomy between old and new product is most evident, has absorbed 7 already in 2018 versus just 1 over the same period a year ago.

Interestingly, vacant land experienced an unseasonable surge in activity during the first quarter. Winter’s deferred start allowed atypical access to property during this period leading to 66 closed transactions. Average price increased a modest 5% over this period driven by 3 premium Martis Camp sales topping $2 million. Figures adjusted to exclude that market outlying community show a 7% decrease in median price reflective of soaring construction costs diminishing that residual value of the land.

An imbalanced supply of available homes will create an interesting market dynamic into the second quarter; a period when a majority of the year’s inventory is brought to market.  With consumers perched awaiting an option to inspire a purchase, well priced sellers will be rewarded.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: August, 2017

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

August, 2017 

Prior year comparisons would indicate that year-to-date production for the local real estate market has been sluggish. Indeed, 6% fewer residential sales have transacted year-to-date leading to an 8% reduction in total real estate volume when compared to the first seven months of 2017. 

A deeper examination reveals that, while certain pockets of the market have hit saturation, the majority of the region continues to thrive. While average price has dropped slightly over this period from $849,000 to $827,000, median price has surged ahead by 10% from $539,000 to $595,750. 

Rising median price contrasted with a slightly diminished average price indicates more homes selling in lower price points.  Translated, primary neighborhoods have outperformed resort communities showing strong demand for full-time homes, investment properties and perhaps, a more modest lifestyle. 

For example, Tahoe Donner, the common denominator community combining primary and second homes, has sold 6% more homes at 5% higher prices than the same period last year. Martis Camp, a phenomenon that has driven the local market to new heights in recent years, has sold 36% fewer homes taking almost $50 million in sales volume out of the market compared to last year.

The combined performance of Gray’s Crossing, Old Greenwood and Lahontan show an identical performance to last year at the same time having sold 28 homes at an average price just above $1,500,000.

Reasons for this shifting dynamic are many; tight inventory creating fewer selections for consumers, a general shift toward more conservative second home purchases or, perhaps, saturation of qualified purchasers for the most expensive local offerings. 

July, 2016 began what may have been the most prolific 90 day period for real estate sales ever in the Tahoe Truckee region. While 2017 may not live up to these lofty standards, we are undoubtedly headed toward another sensational Q3 by historical standards. 

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

2016 Tahoe Truckee Market Summary

2016 Tahoe Truckee Market Summary

For sheer volume, 2016 may have been the most productive year ever for Tahoe Truckee Real Estate. Numerous metrics exceeded all-time highs demonstrating the values of mountain living to be in increasing demand.

Total residential transactions eclipsed 1,600 for the first time since 2004 and showed a 15% increase over the prior year. The total volume of sales leapt a remarkable 26% eclipsing $1.3 billion for the first time ever and continuing a stretch of 4 consecutive years post-recession in which the region has exceed $1 billion. Average price improved by 9% to $833,019 while median grew 5% to $550,000. The latter figures represent the strongest results by category since 2006 and 2008 respectively.

As is often the case with a growing market, the wealth was not distributed equally. Certain segments dramatically outperformed as consumers’ tastes demonstrated a strong preference for new, highly-amenitized communities with modern design over more traditional mountain retreats.

Martis Camp, the epitome of those virtues detailed above, saw explosive growth with 49 homes trading at an average price of $4,325,000 concentrating 15% of the entire regions sales volume. 49 transactions are more than double the prior year and, perhaps more notably, double the quantity of lakefront homes sold on Lake Tahoe.

For generations, waterfront property on Lake Tahoe represented the apex of luxury for Northern Californians. While prime lakefront properties still trade at values greater than $10,000,000, obsolescence in the form of dated and dilapidated product has made the grandeur of Martis Camp and similar communities including Lahontan, Old Greenwood, Gray’s Crossing and Northstar more appealing; particularly in the luxury segment (> $1 million).

While these results are reminiscent of a decade ago, the trajectory appears to have much greater stability as debt remains modest, interest rates historically low, and inventory at its lowest ever to start a new year.

A robust real estate market has brought to life a substantial number of new development projects that promise to keep the region on the cutting edge architecturally. New, infill projects likely to come to market in 2017 include Northstar Mountainside, Old Greenwood, Gray’s Crossing, Kings Beach, Alpine Meadows, and South Lake Tahoe.

Tahoe Mountain Realty has enjoyed great success at the forefront of this shifting consumer trend. Having led a substantial number of transactions in each of Martis Camp, Lahontan, Old Greenwood, Gray’s Crossing, Northstar, and Squaw Valley in addition to Tahoe lakefronts, TMR’s ethos of delivering meaningful content and service continues to drive innovation throughout the region.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: September, 2016

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

September, 2016 

Through these updates, it is our intent to bring you insights into the market dynamics behind the simple number of sales and average pricing. Occasionally, however, the figures speak for themselves.

August, 2016:

·         178 residential transactions:  The greatest number in any month since 2005 and 30 transactions more than any other month in 2016.

·         $160,154,290 in total sales volume:  Added a full 20% to the previous 8 months. This month alone would have accounted for 25% of total volume in 2009.

·         $899,743 average sale price:  While not the greatest single monthly average this year, when factoring in the volume of sales, many of which are likely to be in the lower price tiers, a remarkable figure and the single highest for the month of August since 2005.

   

Year-to-Date:

·         1001 total transactions through 8 months exceeds the 12-month total of many prior years.

·         $851,163,973 total sales volume:  Already exceeds 12-month totals for each year from 2007-2012

·         $850,314 average sale price:  13% higher than 2015 and the first time this metric exceeds 2006-2007.  Median price has risen 4% over the same period.

·         Sales greater than $1,000,000 and $2,000,000 have already exceeded the total number in 2015.

While nearly all sectors of the market showed gains in August, the most notable driver was Martis Camp with 10 homes sales that accounted for 23% of total volume for the month. At an average price of $3,711,950 and $1,163 per square foot, Martis Camp continues to transcend the luxury space for the region. Additionally, 3 lakefront properties traded between $2,690,000 - $6,500,000. Lahontan closed 4 homes from $1,590,000 - $2,250,000, Gray’s Crossing saw 3 trades from $1,370,000 to $1,735,000; the latter representing the highest pricing in that community this year.

Perhaps most remarkably, this exceptional 30-day period comes just ahead of the typical surge for Tahoe-Truckee homes sale. Under normal market conditions, consumers will shop for real estate through Labor Day before making a purchasing decision in anticipation of the winter season to come. As such, September and October are most often the peak months for real estate closings in our region. With over 200 transactions currently pending, September appears to be on a similar trajectory.

Despite this strong absorption, there remains ample inventory of over 9 months supplying the market. It is not unreasonable to expect some cooling as we move beyond the current landscape. The same normalized market conditions that show surging sales over the next 60 days indicate a steep drop off from November – January. Similarly, election years generally create some level of paralysis for discretionary purchases including resort real estate. Particularly in a year as volatile as this, some level of market uncertainly can be expected. Finally, surging conditions like we are now experiencing are often followed almost immediately by a cooling. Without the major debt overhang of a decade ago, this cooling is likely to be a leveling of prices and slightly extended market time rather than more significant impacts in the not-too-distant past.

Fall is arguably the best time of year in Lake Tahoe as warm weather and crisp night make for ideal recreation. We hope you are able to join us as we squeeze every bit of enjoyment from the season.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012