June - 2019 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

On its surface, the Tahoe-Truckee region has lagged behind the performance of 2018 by meaningful amounts. When heavy snowfall caused road closures throughout much of February, many would-be real estate consumers were forced to delay purchasing decisions creating a fairly sizeable Q1 lull for real estate transactions. Inevitably, some of these visits were perishable, lost until next winter while others were simply deferred into Q2. In May, total residential transactions trailed the previous year by 10% while average price fell by a more meaningful 15%. Conversely, median price rose 3% giving a clue to some statistical aberration that has skewed the overall market data.

A side-by-side comparison of May, 2018 vs May, 2019 shows the variance to be entirely within the community of Martis Camp. Martis Camp has been the goliath of Tahoe-Truckee real estate accounting for up to 25% of the region’s total sales volume in recent years. In fact, Martis Camp had eclipsed Tahoe lakefront property as the bell weather for luxury in the region measured in both the total number of premium transactions and the average sales price over much of the last decade.

In May, 2018, Martis Camp saw 8 total transactions accounting for $37,618,000. Zero transactions closed in that community in May of this year. When adjusted to omit Martis Camp transactions, an identical number of transactions closed year over year. The total dollar volume from these sales is 33% higher in 2019 compared the previous year while average price has risen by 25%.

This begs the question as to whether this 30-day period represents a shifting trend or is simply an anomaly in the otherwise storied performance of Martis Camp. Historically, May is a meager period for closings given the lack of buyer activity in late spring. As with the rest of the Tahoe-Truckee market, activity in Martis Camp will pick up in summer and reach its peak in early fall before tapering into winter. Current inventory is modest with 19 available properties; approximately equal to the average time on market over the last 12 months indicating a supply constrained micro-market.

Filling the void, shoppers found greater value in Tahoe Donner which produce 24 sales to just 19 in May 2018 as well as Lahontan and Gray’s Crossing which each saw 2 transactions against zero during the same period in 2018. In each of these communities, new homes were available for $500 and $800 per square foot respectively offering fresh product in thriving communities.

In a typical year, late May often produces the vast majority of new inventory in anticipation of the summer selling season. Having emerged from a winter that was anything but typical, the rush of new listings may be deferred until the weather inevitably turns more cooperative. This may result in a less bulky start to the summer and fewer days on market as inventory is introduced closer to the period in which homes typically sell.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

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NV 0186747

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May 2019- Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

Q2 is typically the period during which Tahoe real estate begins to gather momentum. While the early months of 2019 were productive for the region, overwhelming snowfall and limited access deferred numerable purchases into later months.

April saw the first 30-day period this year wherein residential transactions topped three digits. 109 home sales bested the same period in 2018 by 10% though median priced dropped from $749,000 to $650,000. The latter statistic is more reflective of an exceptional number of high end transactions both at Lake Tahoe and within Martis Camp last year than a major regression of value regionally.

As has been the case throughout much of 2019, the distribution of real estate sales has been over a wider spectrum of communities. In April alone, communities with sales over $1,000,000 included Alpine Meadows, Kings Beach, Gray’s Crossing, Glenshire, Northstar, Tahoe City and Tahoe Donner. Martis Camp saw but one closed transaction versus four in April, 2018.

In many ways, 2018 was an exceptional year for Tahoe real estate defined by an extraordinary number of mega-transactions. 7 transactions exceeded $10,000,000 including a number of extraordinary lakefront sales of $10,000,000, $22,000,000, $24,000,000 and $40,000,000 in addition to 47 home sales in Martis Camp between $3,000,000 - $12,000,000.

After a brief lull to begin the year, 2019 appears to have equally strong demand for luxury real estate with 82 total sales greater than $1,000,000 compared to 87 over the same period a year ago.

Similar to last year, the Tahoe market has been starved of quality supply. Spring typically delivers much of the year’s inventory during May and June, once snow has abated and in anticipation of the busy summer shopping season. Recent weeks have proved this will once again be the case as 187 new properties have come to market in the last 30 days. While this inflates the number of available listings by more than 25%, the market remains titled in the favor of sellers at 4.5 months’ supply. While more product will inevitably come to market through Memorial Day, the listing season may be elongated as higher elevation properties continue to melt out through spring.

As inventory comes to market, another trend appears to be gaining speed. Vacant land offerings are increasing while absorption slows reflecting the increasing disparity between construction costs and property values. Because most consumers are unable to build a home for equal or lesser cost than the value of the home, demand (and thus value) for underlying land falls. Year to date, 46 residential homesites have traded hands. This compares to 104 during the same period a year ago (in fairness, a low snow year making shopping more viable for half the year), and 69 in 2017 (an equally robust year for snowfall). 363 homesites are available for sale while just 260 transacted in the previous 12 months; nearly 17 months’ supply.

Correspondingly, the new homes with modern aesthetic and quality finish that are in such high demand will become increasingly difficult to find and more competitive to acquire. Homes built in 2018 or 2019 sold in an average of 49 days at 99% of their asking price. Older property saw nearly double the time on market and double the discount from asking price over the last 12 months.

In summary, we appear ready to launch into another spring and summer of promising real estate activity throughout the Tahoe Truckee region. We look forward to keeping you updated on real estate activity and the incredible lifestyle that accompanies.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

April 2019 - Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

After keeping pace with previous years over the first several months of 2019, March saw a precipitous drop in real estate activity throughout the Tahoe Truckee area. Several factors including overwhelming snowfall throughout early winter and limited access to the region combined with an unusual scarcity of available property leading to this statistical drop.

In all, 256 residential properties traded in Q1, 17% fewer than over the same period a year prior. Conversely, average price has risen nearly 10% attributable to a handful of super-premium transactions, while median price has risen nearly 2%.

Some lull after a years long rally is to be expected and is ultimately healthy for the long term prosperity of the region. However, the continued health of the Northern California economy keeps fueling demand for second homes in the mountains. The recent IPO from Lyft and expected success when Uber and AirBNB go public are examples of exceptional wealth creation concentrated in Northern California that ultimately finds its way to Tahoe.   As such, a sluggish month for closings appears to be more related to historic snowfall and highway closures than any macroeconomic trend.

The impact of heavy snow to the demand side is obvious. When highways close consumers cannot visit the region to tour property and make purchasing decisions. Less obvious is the impact to the supply side. Would-be sellers have been generally unable to prepare homes for market including simple tasks including photography when snowbanks exceed ground level. As such, the steady trickle of new listings typical of Q1 have been entirely absent leaving relatively little available inventory.

Within our resort marketplace, balanced inventory is considered around 6 months’ supply while premium resort communities are closer to 1 year. Current inventory sits at just 3.3 months’ supply. 

A look at some individual communities and relative absorption rates:

Northstar:                           56 listings / 98 sales = 6.8 months’ supply

Old Greenwood:               4 listings / 4 sales ( + 6 pre-sale contracts) = 12 months

Gray’s Crossing:                7 listings / 17 sales = 5 months

Lahontan:                            4 listings / 9 sales = 5.3 months

Martis Camp:                     17 listings / 48 sales = 4.2 months

Schaffers Mill:                    6 listings / 11 sales = 6.5 months (MLS only)

Others for reference:

Tahoe Donner                                 36 listings / 326 sales = 1.9 months

Lakeside                                               81 listings / 426 sales = 2.2 months

Squaw Valley                                   82 listings / 71 sales = 13 months

The period between Memorial Day and July 4 is typically the most prolific for new listings as ski leases expire and sellers are able to handle deferred maintenance.  It would not be surprising to see a heavier than usual quantity hit the market once the snowbanks recede and give way to green grass and open trails.

In the meantime, consumers deterred throughout February and early March are taking advantage of what promises to be a long season. Real estate tours and offer activity have shown a meaningful increase now that clear roads and longer days have made for optimal conditions.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

March 2019 - Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

Abundant snowfall has impaired the ability of many would-be consumers to visit the region deferring purchasing decisions to spring. This may cause a slower than usual March; a time when winter sales often find their greatest stride before a shoulder season lull.

Regardless, large snowfall typically casts a prominent light on slopeside real estate. Northstar currently shows 6 properties pending sale including 3 in the Mountainside neighborhood. Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows add 5 and 2 pending sales respectively.  With a long spring assured, ample time will exist for spring skiing and real estate tours alike. 

Year-to-date, the 2019 market correction has been a gentle one for the Tahoe-Truckee region. The total number of transactions has been almost identical to the same period in 2018 despite enduring polar opposite winter conditions. Similarly, median price is within .6% of the same period last year while inventory remains modest at 3.5 months’ supply.

Notable among transactions recorded in February 2019 is the geographic distribution, or lack thereof, when compared to last February.

2019 premium transactions include homes in Martis Camp (4; $3,999,535 - $6,700,000), Lahontan (4; $2,250,000 - $4,750,000), Northstar (2; $1,870,000 - $2,935,000) plus Squaw Valley, Tahoe Donner and other residential areas of Truckee. Lakeside homes are not represented above $1 million but for a single transaction, the 15^th largest in the region for the month. While it is not uncommon for lakeside interest to peak in summer months, the extremity of this data set is remarkable.

In contract, last February saw 9 transactions greater than $1 million in lakeside communities contrasted by 3 in Northstar, and one in each of Lahontan, Martis Camp, Tahoe Donner and Alpine Meadows.

The chart below shows the ratio of sales in Truckee based communities versus those in the Tahoe Basin (California; North and West Shores).

While more product exists in Truckee, the chart shows a strong progression toward premium purchases in newer communities.  

This phenomenon is the continuation of a gradual evolution whereby newer, highly amenitized communities are valued at a significant premium over dated, though classically designed, Tahoe product. In addition to contemporary homes, the explosion in popularity of jet travel to and from the Truckee airport has been a boon for those communities most proximate including Martis Camp, Lahontan, Schaffers Mill, Northstar, Old Greenwood and Gray’s Crossing.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

Year End Market Update - 2018

In 2018, real estate in the Tahoe Truckee region capped a bull market streak dating back to Spring, 2011 with highest ever annual figures for total dollar volume, average price and quantity of transaction above $1 million and $10 million.

Inspired by a record number of premium transactions, the region totaled just under $1,700,000,000 in real estate sales, a number greater than any single year in history. 386 transactions exceeded $1 million a record for both the total quantity and, at 23%, the share of all sales in the region. At the market’s highest reaches, 7 properties generated eight-digit sums including 4 different properties on Tahoe’s West Shore that traded above $20,000,000.

These exceptional properties delivered the first ever annualized average price of over $1,000,000. This 22% increase is moderated by a 7.5% gain in median price, more reflective of the performance of real estate across all classes.

While reaching new heights, the market clearly hit a saturation point showing an 8% regression in the total number of units sold.  While this slowing was undoubtedly attributable to a shortage of inventory; particularly in entry-level price points; early in the year, inventory has stabilized slightly to 4 months’ supply. While this figure is higher than at the start of 2018, it is the second lowest supply available to start a year on record.

Attempting to normalize 2018 results absent lakefront and other premium property sales reveals a more sustainable environment with certain communities showing gains: Martis Camp, Lahontan, Old Greenwood, and Northstar. While other communities including, Gray’s Crossing and Tahoe Donner, maintained gains realized in previous years.

To expect such results to continue would be disingenuous. As stated above, the total number of transactions have moderated while available supply has crept upward. Some measure of cooling would ultimately be healthy for a market wherein appreciation has outpaced inflation and other core metrics for a prolonged period. Unlike a decade ago, there is neither the rampant speculation nor egregious debt that had a spiraling effect. In fact, certain conditions now exist that may safeguard against a meaningful backslide including tremendous demand for nightly rentals that offer a meaningful offset to carry costs. Even the Great Recession did not dim the desire for Northern Californians to spend time in the mountains keeping transient demand healthy.

Even the slightest deceleration in the market could cool runaway construction costs; a condition that has dampened land values and restrained creation of new product below the market’s premium reaches. In a market starved for new, highly-amenitized sub-premium homes, this could have a stimulating effect that benefits consumers in all price points.

As innovation fuels wealth creation in Silicon Valley and throughout Northern California, easily accessible second homes will always have value. As has always been the case, Tahoe will continue to be the Sierra playground for generations to come.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

BRE 01442453

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December 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

For the first time in recent memory, seasonal conditions are aligning with the real estate market to create a Goldilocks beginning to the winter season. After nearly a decade of winter starting too late or coming in too heavily, a series of storms from Thanksgiving into early December have created mid-winter conditions to start the season. Combined with continued strong real estate conditions, a perfect storm for mountain property is in the making.

Despite the traditional 4^th quarter taper for real estate activity, there remains considerable deal flow in the market. November experienced 137 residential transactions at an average price of $911,537. These figures dramatically outperform historical averages, falling short only in comparison to the record activity during this period in 2017. Consistent with much of this year, November fell short of last year’s volume by 15% while surging on average price by 13%.

Premium sales continue to drive pricing upward buoyed in November by yet another 4 Martis Camp homes ranging from $3,075,000 - $7,000,000.  Within Northstar, a Ritz Carlton Penthouse Residence traded for $4,400,000, while Lahontan and a rare Sugar Bowl home sale each saw trades near $3 million.

While word of real estate slowdowns abound in outlying regions, the Tahoe-Truckee market continues to thrive. Available supply remains titled in the favor of sellers at just over 4 months’ inventory. Demand coming from Northern California communities has intensified as a greater number of high-wealth families find retreat in the mountains, whether as primary owners seeking a lifestyle enhancement or the traditional second homeowner. During the tragic Camp Fire in November, countless Bay Area families decamped for clean mountain air as schools were cancelled. The commentary from a remarkable number of those impacted was contemplation of a lifestyle change to the mountains where traffic is minimal and the pace less hectic. Local infrastructure has kept pace with the needs of these consumers creating the necessary components to complete such a move including high-achieving schools, high capacity internet service and expanded airport capacity. Trails, ski slopes, blue skies and clean air are fixed commodities.

With a Goldilocks season upon us, the focus on the market is likely to shift to Mountain properties. As the saying goes, it is easier to drive to golf / trails in the summer than to skiing in the winter. When conditions permit, the value of mountain resort living becomes obvious turning the spotlight on new offerings. Mountainside at Northstar will be launching its newest project; Boulders in December after recently selling out its Stellar Collection. Similarly, look for interest in the Village at Northstar and other premiere mountain offerings to gain meaningful attention in the coming months.  

I hope that you’ll be able to experience this remarkable start to winter in the coming weeks. In the meantime, best wishes for a happy and healthy holiday season.

Photo courtesy of Tahoe Mountain Lodging 

Katie Tyler

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October 2018 Q3 Truckee-Tahoe Market Report

The third quarter of 2018 was record setting for real estate in the Tahoe Truckee region by every measure but for one. Total sales volume and average price hit all-time highs while median price equaled the 2006 market peak. Only the total number of sales units fell behind the same period last year due, in part, to a supply constrained market.

Total sales volume from July through September totaled $540,385,789. The second ever period eclipsing a half billion and pushing higher than the same time in 2017 by 7%. With the total number of transactions lagging by 7%, the market is being driven by premium inventory. In fact, average price (a metric more easily manipulated by extraordinarily high prices), surged by 14% from $903,576 in 2017 to $1,037,785.

Median price, more reflective of whole market conditions, bumped up 8% from $595,000 to $645,000 despite lower transaction volume.

In good markets and bad, the third quarter begins a steady climb as the regional market gains momentum when summer visitors combine with anticipation of winter-to-come. This momentum will typically peak with closed transactions in October before tapering to year end.

Driving activity during Q3, were an extraordinary number of premiere transactions of both Tahoe lakefront properties and Martis Camp estate homes. In total, 4 properties crested $10 million including Tahoe Mountain Realty’s $24,000,000 masterpiece sale on Tahoe’s West Shore. Martis Camp, a community that didn’t exist when the market last peaked in 2006, transacted ten homes in the last 90 days from $4,185,000 - $11,750,000 adding $64,000,000 to the region’s transaction volume.

With any market, the wealth is not distributed equally. While most residential structures have appreciated at a healthy clip, raw land has continued to depreciate. In addition to simple supply and demand considerations, land values have even greater variability based upon construction costs.  Building cost has soared at a rate even greater than either inflation or home appreciation due to a complex combination of rising commodity prices, regulatory costs and exceptionally tight (and busy) labor supply.  As a result, residual land value, defined as the value of a finished new home minus the cost to build, is actually inverted in many neighborhoods throughout the region. As a result, land values hover closer to mid-recession lows than peaking home values.

Looking ahead, Q4 appears poised to maintain at the steady pace of recent years. At 5 month’s supply, there is sufficient inventory to the consumers currently engaged though many are accumulating significantly days on market for having been ambitiously priced.

While the current bull market is showing no sign of major correction, a plateauing appears inevitable as the buyer pool becomes saturated. Whether such a slowing comes before the end of 2018 is yet to be seen. Regardless, the beauty and health of the region remain recession-proof commodities.

Katie Tyler

BRE 01442453

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Year To Date Market Report - Tahoe-Truckee 2018

During the first half of 2018 the Tahoe-Truckee region has seen an explosion at the highest reaches of the market with 66 properties trading at values in excess of $2,000,000; a figure that exceeds the 12-month total of 7 out of the last 10 years. Reduced supply combined with surging demand have resulted in slightly fewer sales at substantially higher prices, and conditions defining the performance of the market are satisfyingly linear.

The motivation of consumers seeking a lifestyle enhancement, whether as a primary or secondary home, in a beautiful mountain environment is easily understandable. With factors economic and cultural in alignment, the quantity of families making this quality of life decision has never been greater. In the simplest terms, there are generally more consumers in the marketplace than quality homes to buy. 

Premium lakefront offerings, those that have been updated or rebuilt and sit on remarkably parcels of land, have led this charge with three sales topping $20,000,000 and another handful in play for the second half of 2018. Not far behind traditional lakefront estates on premium values but at the opposite end of design spectrum, is the continued phenomenon of Martis Camp. With new, modern homes and an unrivaled amenity package, home sales have doubled year over year while values reach to $8 million and above for select offerings.

Such robust activity is somewhat atypical of the season; particularly after a late-arriving winter. The second half of any given year will see nearly double the transaction volume of the first half. The current sense is that the only factor limiting this potential is restrained supply. Inventory levels have been hovering around 3 months’ supply for much of the last 12 months; approximately 50% below a balanced market. As spring typically brings new listings to market, we currently sit at a balanced 6-month supply. With the aforementioned interest piquing, conditions are ripe for a sensational last two quarters of 2018.

I look forward to being your go-to resource for navigating the dynamics of our unique marketplace.

Katie Tyler

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May 2018 - Truckee-Tahoe Market Update

The first tangible proof of an apparent trend for the Tahoe Truckee real estate market became apparent in April, 2018. Due to an exceptional shortage of inventory, the volume of transactions dropped significantly when compared to the same month in previous years. Conversely, what property did transact showed an extreme bias toward the premium end of the market driving average price up substantially.

While the inventory shortage has been apparent going back to the 4^th quarter of 2017, momentum in the market drove the total number of transactions to numbers slightly ahead through Q1, 2018. As inventory tightened, it became evident that 2018 would focus on quality over quantity as the market delivered fewer transactions but at larger prices. 

Driving figures through the roof in April 2018 was a lone $40 million transaction of a rare and compelling $40 million estate on Tahoe’s West Shore. Including this transaction, the number of sales dropped by 17% year over year while transaction volume leapt by 77% and average price by 212%. Adjusting for this market anomaly, volume was up 22% and average price 48%. Even the steadier median price metric grew by 36% indicative of a higher class of purchases as well as some market appreciation.

Beyond this remarkable lakefront transaction, other premium sales were distributed across multiple communities.  Martis Camp continues on the forefront of marquee acquisitions with three transactions between $4.5 - $5.5 million. Four other lakeside properties got a jump on the summer waterfront season with sales greater than $2 million. Winter closed with strong activity in Northstar’s Mountainside community with a $3 million transaction.  Gray’s Crossing, Schaffer’s Mill and Lahontan all saw strong demand for luxury property as well.

Ideally, supply will begin to catch up to demand as spring yields the largest crop of new listings.  While 181 properties have been newly listed in the past 30 days, total inventory stands at just over 3 month’s supply, a further reduction from recent months. A typically quiet month for tourist activity combined with the common Memorial Day listing surge, should provide greater balance to the market heading into summer.

Including the aforementioned transaction for $40 million, momentum is clearly building for Tahoe’s most iconic properties. The California side has already matched the number of sales above $8,000,000 for all of 2017 while Incline Village recently transacted a home at $36 million. With but a handful of truly epic lakefront estates available, the coming summer promises to be active.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Q1 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

The convergence of several different narratives meld together to explain the performance of real estate in the Tahoe-Truckee region during the first quarter of 2018.

Economic:  A surging Northern California economy continues to deliver robust demand for second homes.

Supply:  Historically low supply has shifted negotiating power into the seller’s favor creating upward pressure on prices.

Environmental:  A peculiar winter delivered low snow in the early season; a scenario that actually facilitated greater real estate activity than during the previous winter when abundant snowfall hampered access.  Tremendous late-season snow inspired visitation from would-be consumers under optimal conditions.

The convergence of these factors resulted in the strongest ever first quarter for Tahoe-Truckee real estate based upon a number of different metrics. Total residential sales grew 6% over the same period a year prior while total dollar volume leapt by 19%; indicative of a greater number of premium homes selling. In fact, 83 homes traded at prices greater than $1 million, 53% more than during the same period in 2017 driving average price up 12% to $971,767.

The luxury segment is driving both volume and price as premium, modern homes provide an opportunity for instant gratification to wealthy consumers. Martis Camp and Lahontan are two communities that embody this trend in particular. Martis Camp has been setting new benchmarks for an extended period of time. In Q1, 2018 that community saw 11 homes close escrow up from an already robust 7 in the first quarter of the prior year.  Lahontan, a community in which the dichotomy between old and new product is most evident, has absorbed 7 already in 2018 versus just 1 over the same period a year ago.

Interestingly, vacant land experienced an unseasonable surge in activity during the first quarter. Winter’s deferred start allowed atypical access to property during this period leading to 66 closed transactions. Average price increased a modest 5% over this period driven by 3 premium Martis Camp sales topping $2 million. Figures adjusted to exclude that market outlying community show a 7% decrease in median price reflective of soaring construction costs diminishing that residual value of the land.

An imbalanced supply of available homes will create an interesting market dynamic into the second quarter; a period when a majority of the year’s inventory is brought to market.  With consumers perched awaiting an option to inspire a purchase, well priced sellers will be rewarded.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012