April 2019 - Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

After keeping pace with previous years over the first several months of 2019, March saw a precipitous drop in real estate activity throughout the Tahoe Truckee area. Several factors including overwhelming snowfall throughout early winter and limited access to the region combined with an unusual scarcity of available property leading to this statistical drop.

In all, 256 residential properties traded in Q1, 17% fewer than over the same period a year prior. Conversely, average price has risen nearly 10% attributable to a handful of super-premium transactions, while median price has risen nearly 2%.

Some lull after a years long rally is to be expected and is ultimately healthy for the long term prosperity of the region. However, the continued health of the Northern California economy keeps fueling demand for second homes in the mountains. The recent IPO from Lyft and expected success when Uber and AirBNB go public are examples of exceptional wealth creation concentrated in Northern California that ultimately finds its way to Tahoe.   As such, a sluggish month for closings appears to be more related to historic snowfall and highway closures than any macroeconomic trend.

The impact of heavy snow to the demand side is obvious. When highways close consumers cannot visit the region to tour property and make purchasing decisions. Less obvious is the impact to the supply side. Would-be sellers have been generally unable to prepare homes for market including simple tasks including photography when snowbanks exceed ground level. As such, the steady trickle of new listings typical of Q1 have been entirely absent leaving relatively little available inventory.

Within our resort marketplace, balanced inventory is considered around 6 months’ supply while premium resort communities are closer to 1 year. Current inventory sits at just 3.3 months’ supply. 

A look at some individual communities and relative absorption rates:

Northstar:                           56 listings / 98 sales = 6.8 months’ supply

Old Greenwood:               4 listings / 4 sales ( + 6 pre-sale contracts) = 12 months

Gray’s Crossing:                7 listings / 17 sales = 5 months

Lahontan:                            4 listings / 9 sales = 5.3 months

Martis Camp:                     17 listings / 48 sales = 4.2 months

Schaffers Mill:                    6 listings / 11 sales = 6.5 months (MLS only)

Others for reference:

Tahoe Donner                                 36 listings / 326 sales = 1.9 months

Lakeside                                               81 listings / 426 sales = 2.2 months

Squaw Valley                                   82 listings / 71 sales = 13 months

The period between Memorial Day and July 4 is typically the most prolific for new listings as ski leases expire and sellers are able to handle deferred maintenance.  It would not be surprising to see a heavier than usual quantity hit the market once the snowbanks recede and give way to green grass and open trails.

In the meantime, consumers deterred throughout February and early March are taking advantage of what promises to be a long season. Real estate tours and offer activity have shown a meaningful increase now that clear roads and longer days have made for optimal conditions.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

March 2019 - Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

Abundant snowfall has impaired the ability of many would-be consumers to visit the region deferring purchasing decisions to spring. This may cause a slower than usual March; a time when winter sales often find their greatest stride before a shoulder season lull.

Regardless, large snowfall typically casts a prominent light on slopeside real estate. Northstar currently shows 6 properties pending sale including 3 in the Mountainside neighborhood. Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows add 5 and 2 pending sales respectively.  With a long spring assured, ample time will exist for spring skiing and real estate tours alike. 

Year-to-date, the 2019 market correction has been a gentle one for the Tahoe-Truckee region. The total number of transactions has been almost identical to the same period in 2018 despite enduring polar opposite winter conditions. Similarly, median price is within .6% of the same period last year while inventory remains modest at 3.5 months’ supply.

Notable among transactions recorded in February 2019 is the geographic distribution, or lack thereof, when compared to last February.

2019 premium transactions include homes in Martis Camp (4; $3,999,535 - $6,700,000), Lahontan (4; $2,250,000 - $4,750,000), Northstar (2; $1,870,000 - $2,935,000) plus Squaw Valley, Tahoe Donner and other residential areas of Truckee. Lakeside homes are not represented above $1 million but for a single transaction, the 15^th largest in the region for the month. While it is not uncommon for lakeside interest to peak in summer months, the extremity of this data set is remarkable.

In contract, last February saw 9 transactions greater than $1 million in lakeside communities contrasted by 3 in Northstar, and one in each of Lahontan, Martis Camp, Tahoe Donner and Alpine Meadows.

The chart below shows the ratio of sales in Truckee based communities versus those in the Tahoe Basin (California; North and West Shores).

While more product exists in Truckee, the chart shows a strong progression toward premium purchases in newer communities.  

This phenomenon is the continuation of a gradual evolution whereby newer, highly amenitized communities are valued at a significant premium over dated, though classically designed, Tahoe product. In addition to contemporary homes, the explosion in popularity of jet travel to and from the Truckee airport has been a boon for those communities most proximate including Martis Camp, Lahontan, Schaffers Mill, Northstar, Old Greenwood and Gray’s Crossing.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

CA BRE 01442453
NV 0186747

c 530 277 1012 

Year End Market Update - 2018

In 2018, real estate in the Tahoe Truckee region capped a bull market streak dating back to Spring, 2011 with highest ever annual figures for total dollar volume, average price and quantity of transaction above $1 million and $10 million.

Inspired by a record number of premium transactions, the region totaled just under $1,700,000,000 in real estate sales, a number greater than any single year in history. 386 transactions exceeded $1 million a record for both the total quantity and, at 23%, the share of all sales in the region. At the market’s highest reaches, 7 properties generated eight-digit sums including 4 different properties on Tahoe’s West Shore that traded above $20,000,000.

These exceptional properties delivered the first ever annualized average price of over $1,000,000. This 22% increase is moderated by a 7.5% gain in median price, more reflective of the performance of real estate across all classes.

While reaching new heights, the market clearly hit a saturation point showing an 8% regression in the total number of units sold.  While this slowing was undoubtedly attributable to a shortage of inventory; particularly in entry-level price points; early in the year, inventory has stabilized slightly to 4 months’ supply. While this figure is higher than at the start of 2018, it is the second lowest supply available to start a year on record.

Attempting to normalize 2018 results absent lakefront and other premium property sales reveals a more sustainable environment with certain communities showing gains: Martis Camp, Lahontan, Old Greenwood, and Northstar. While other communities including, Gray’s Crossing and Tahoe Donner, maintained gains realized in previous years.

To expect such results to continue would be disingenuous. As stated above, the total number of transactions have moderated while available supply has crept upward. Some measure of cooling would ultimately be healthy for a market wherein appreciation has outpaced inflation and other core metrics for a prolonged period. Unlike a decade ago, there is neither the rampant speculation nor egregious debt that had a spiraling effect. In fact, certain conditions now exist that may safeguard against a meaningful backslide including tremendous demand for nightly rentals that offer a meaningful offset to carry costs. Even the Great Recession did not dim the desire for Northern Californians to spend time in the mountains keeping transient demand healthy.

Even the slightest deceleration in the market could cool runaway construction costs; a condition that has dampened land values and restrained creation of new product below the market’s premium reaches. In a market starved for new, highly-amenitized sub-premium homes, this could have a stimulating effect that benefits consumers in all price points.

As innovation fuels wealth creation in Silicon Valley and throughout Northern California, easily accessible second homes will always have value. As has always been the case, Tahoe will continue to be the Sierra playground for generations to come.

Katie Tyler

ktlaketahoe.com

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

November 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

According to the rhythm of Tahoe-Truckee real estate, October is typically the zenith for closed transactions in any given year.

2018 appears to have peaked out early with a massive month of August while otherwise following a generally traditional pattern. As has been the case for most of 2018, the number of transactions will lag the prior year slightly however average price is markedly higher driven by a huge volume of premium sales.

An average sale price of $1,050,213 for October reflects an increase of 26% over the same period in 2017. Median price was also up an impressive 14% year over year.

Unlike recent months where singular mega-sales have driven average price upward, October saw a steady flow of high-end sales including 4 residential transactions in Martis Camp from $3.6m to $7.3m, another 4 in Lahontan from $2.2m - $3.5m, and 9 transactions in Northstar as focus begins to shift toward winter mountain property.

At Northstar, the Mountainside community experienced the sellout of its Stellar Collection with the final on-mountain residence in two distinct enclaves sold out. This sets it up nicely for the release of Boulders, an ideally balanced project of elegant mountain homes starting at $2.2m.

With the end of summer came the final sales within the Legacy Collection at Old Greenwood. Within this community, the introduction of diverse product has proved stimulating with a record quantity of custom and multi-family homes trading at values not seen since before the recession.

Consistent with the figures present above, inventory remains slightly tilted in the seller’s favor at just under 5 months’ supply. This number is slightly elevated from the same period last year largely inflated by overly ambitious, and largely unmotivated, sellers.

Thus, we conclude the peak selling season for 2018 in fine fashion. While the market will remain throughout the entire year, there will be a taper through year end and into early January before winter closings pick back up. The economic landscape may look different 90 days from now however the fundamental elements that make Lake Tahoe homeownership rewarding will remain constant.

Katie Tyler

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012
ktlaketahoe.com

March, 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

A short month, during which a week is allocated to ski-related travel, often turns February into a hectic period for real estate sales. While the total volume of sales often drops, the premium segment of the Tahoe-Truckee market continues to thrive. This year the top end transactions in Northstar, Martis Camp, Old Greenwood and waterfront property on Lake Tahoe all transacted at extremely healthy numbers.

The winners of the season are, without question, savvy sellers taking advantage of laughably low inventory by coming to market now with extremely limited competition. Current sellers face less than 3 months’ supply across all market sectors; and just 3 weeks’ supply in prices below $1,000,000. 

Even premium price points, those above $1 million, are feeling the effects of limited inventory. Where balance typically exists at 1 year’s supply, current inventory offers just under 7 months.

A few specifics:

Gray’s Crossing   10 active listings           26 sales (past 12 months)  4.6 months’ supply

Old Greenwood      5 active listings          15 sales                              3.9 months’ supply

Lahontan               10 active listings          20 sales                              6 months’ supply

Martis Camp         20 active listings          44 sales                              5.5 months’ supply

Northstar               52 active listings          110 sales                             5.6 months’ supply

Two communities offer interesting case studies on the current phenomenon.

Lahontan, the trailblazing resort community, transacted a single home in the first half of 2017. At the time, Lahontan was shaking out a value differentiation for older properties versus updated homes. Year to date 2018, every home listed below $2,000,000 has been absorbed subsequently pushing momentum into higher price points that now show homes pending sale at $2,495,000 and $3,150,000. The 10 remaining homes range in price from $2,490,000 to $4,889,000.

In Tahoe Donner, the bell weather community for the Tahoe-Truckee region, more homes are currently pending than available listings; a previously unseen phenomenon that rewards those willing to shortcut the typical spring listing period. In fact, with conditions so heavily weighted against buyers, a seller wishing to leaseback or seek some other concession to extend time in their mountain home may be accommodated.

With new snow on the ground and market momentum building, the balance of ski season promises to be a busy period for real estate activity.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

The Golf Academy at Old Greenwood

The Golf Academy at Old Greenwood

There are many golf options in the Tahoe area. It can be fun to go around and experience all of them. The next month or so is a great time to play while the courses are still open but the crowds have faded.

The Golf Academy at Old Greenwood is the best in the area, hands down. Keith Lyford, Golf Magazine’s “Top 100” instructor is the director of the Academy. Each instructor has been personally selected by Lyford so you can be assured that they will meet his particularly high standards. Lyford is on site daily and actively involved in each participants personal improvement.

Beginner golfers will learn from the start to steer clear of forming bad habits. Intermediate golfers will capture more fluid, powerful swings and advanced golfers will shave enough strokes to reach the next level and become more competitive tournament players.

In addition to five star instruction, the facility is outstanding. The Golf Academy at Old Greenwood is a 15 acre training complex that hosts a 1,500 square foot learning center equipped with an indoor/outdoor hitting bay, flat screen TV’s, lockers, club storage, a fully staffed reception area and high speed internet access.

The outdoor classroom consists of two large all-grass tees and a five acre short game facility with several greens for putting, chipping and sand play. The golf technology available gives players and instructors scientific information to help improve play. The Flightscope tracks the balls entire trajectory which helps fit players for a new driver, chart club yardages or perform a full game evaluation. The 4-Camera Video Analysis captures player's swings for replay evaluation. The TOMI Putting Lab provides feedback on nine key parameters of the putting stroke. This allows instructors to formulate a clear picture of each stroke and can also help fit a putter to individual stroke tendencies.

Options at The Golf Academy at Old Greenwood include: golf schools, golf clinics, private golf lessons, golf school vacation packages and junior golf academy with 5-day summer camps. From short game development to driving full-out, everything you need to improve has been incorporated into the Academy and it’s all right here in Tahoe.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Tahoe Resort Golf Course Openings

Tahoe Resort Golf Course Openings

Spring is in the air, is golf on your mind? The grounds teams around the area are working hard to get the courses ready for play. Everything from blowing snow off the course to clearing tree debris. This winter has left behind a lot of challenges for the Tahoe golf teams.

To get an idea of what goes into getting the course ready after winter, I spoke with Travis Alley, Director of golf at Tahoe Mountain Club. Alley’s team started the process of getting the course ready to open in the middle of March by actually snowplowing the course. The team would have to plow the cart path in order to get to the greens. This means plowing layers of 5-10 feet of snow to get to the greens. Usually they are battling 2-3 foot snow pack, this year it was more like 10-15 feet.  

It is important for the crews to get down to the greens fast to prevent freeze thaw (the process of thawing in the day and freezing over night) vs. the deep freeze over the winter months that actually preserves the greens. Once the green is uncovered, a tarp is laid out over the green creating a sort of greenhouse effect that stimulates growth. Growing grass this way takes about 4 weeks before the course can open. As for the fairways and the rest of the grounds, it’s just a waiting game until the snow melts.
  

Old Greenwood is in good shape. At Gray’s Crossing, they are using a type of black mulch to sprinkle on the snow that attracts the sun and speeds up the melting process. In the meantime there is plenty to do with massive amounts of tree branches and other debris to clear. 

   Old Greenwood is scheduled to open May 19, 2017, one of the first openings in the area.
We area all excited and ready to hit some golf balls. Below are the scheduled dates for Truckee resort golf courses to open.

Old Greenwood: 5/19/17

Gray’s Crossing: 6/2/17

Martis Camp: 5/25/17

Northstar: 5/26/17

Lahontan: 5/19/16

Tahoe Donner: Mid-June

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

Resort Properties vs. Lakeside

Resort Properties vs. Lakeside

We’ve spent quite a bit of time analyzing the values inherent to our consumer archetypes and the resulting trend towards newer, resort properties in place of more dated lakeside facilities. The below chart illustrates that trend as defined by sales greater than $1,000,000 for areas 1-5 vs. 7-9.

It is obvious to note that Truckee simply has more inventory thus its numbers will be general higher. What stands out is the narrowing of that margin during our most challenging years and the rapid widening of that margin in recovery.

Since 2011, we’ve seen a massive surge of construction in newer, highly amenitized communities led by Martis Camp and including Northstar, Lahontan, Schaffer’s Mill, Old Greenwood and Gray’s Crossing. Newer, more modern homes are proving to be more appealing to our consumers both for design tastes and the lack of maintenance enabling more time spent in pursuit of recreation and enjoyment.

Within the Tahoe basin, lakefront property will always be in scarce supply. However, the general build out of the basin and aging inventory combined with challenging regulatory environment making redevelopment economically infeasible in many cases has created this market phenomenon.

Assuming stable economic conditions, supply will likely continue to grow on the Truckee side until our core communities are more nearly built out. This will likely continue the spread detailed above. However, over a longer period of time, as Truckee similarly ages and economic cycles come and go, I suspect this data will stabilize.

Tahoe Truckee Market Update: June

Tahoe Truckee Market Update

June 2016

As the Tahoe-Truckee real estate continues to hum along month after month with meaningful gains in transaction volume and average price, a number of other indicators are emerging to demonstrate stout confidence in our resort market. Namely, developers are reentering or recapitalizing to bring new product and enhanced offerings to the public.

The remarkable success of Martis Camp has been well chronicled over the past decade. In its wake, we are now seeing an echo effect whereby neighboring properties are able to draft on this success. The second developer of Schaffer’s Mill has done an excellent job delivering amenities including a clubhouse, pool and, newly, a restaurant facility to compliment an excellent golf course and beautiful, natural terrain. Success has followed through recent homesite and Mountain Lodge releases including 10 homes sales year to date.
At Northstar, Mountainside is now executing on a vision for a series of amenities including a yoga studio, ample hiking trails and an extensive play area spanning over an acre to compliment immediate slopeside access in winter.

At Old Greenwood, the master developer has brought 7 townhomes recently converted from fractional ownership to market with strong, early results. An application is pending with the Town of Truckee to create additional cabin style product of a similar character.

In addition to an explosive amount of custom home construction at Gray’s Crossing, a local developer is completing the vision for The Fairway Townhomes going all in with 12 new residences to flank five existing residences that have sat alone for nearly a decade.

The timing of these new projects may be spot on as market conditions continue to surge. May, 2016 saw a 7% increase on total residential sales over the same month last year to go along with a 22% increase in total sales volume and a 14% increase in average price. As is typical of the season, a number of these premium sales have migrated back to lakeside communities. Northstar closed 4 transaction greater than $1,000,000 including two sales in Mountainside and a an exciting sale in Great Bear Lodge in the Village at Northstar. Squaw Valley Schaffer’s Mill and Gray’s Crossing each closed 3 premium properties along with one each in Lahontan and Martis Camp.
Perhaps most notable, a stronger-than-average Memorial Day has kicked off an early start to the typical summer shopping season. A West Shore lakefront is now pending for $16,800,000 just south of Sunnyside along with 5 Martis Camp custom homes, another two in Mountainside at Northstar and strong showings from Gray’s Crossing and Lahontan.

The summer promises to be active and dynamic. Undoubtedly, there will be much real estate trading hands at increasing values. We will also chart the progress of the many projects underway promising to deliver on a vision stalled by time and economic cycles that will continue the rapid maturation of our community.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012 

2015 Tahoe Truckee Market Summary

2015 Tahoe Truckee Market Summary

A perfect winter is underway and thriving economic conditions are setting up 2016 to be a monumental year. While much of the region has been on an upswing for several years, the series of dry winters have held certain areas from reaching their potential.

Despite weather challenges in the early months, 2015 was hardly a disappointment.   Real estate sales in the region surpassed $1 billion for the third consecutive year.  The total number of sales slightly eclipsed the prior year as did median price, which rose by 1% to $520,000.  Inventory remains almost perfectly balanced with 6 months supply available at the start of 2016. 2015 also marked the most significant surge in new home construction in over a decade with several hundred new starts throughout Martis Camp, Gray’s Crossing, Lahontan, Schaffer’s Mill and Old Greenwood.

Martis Camp continued to set the standard for luxury real estate as it marches ever closer to sell out. The average price for a completed home in Martis Camp has now surpassed $4,600,000, higher than the typical price of a Tahoe lakefront, the previous standard bearer for elite homeownership.

Gray’s Crossing experienced a major milestone as the final developer-owned lot was sold.  With all 377 homesites now in private hands the resurgence of this community is in full swing with nearly 100 new homes started in the past 3 years. A local investment group has begun construction on the final phase of Fairway Townhomes and will bring them to market in the Spring of 2016.

Similarly, Lahontan continues to find its place within a new generation of consumers. Homesite prices have continued to rise steadily as new construction has infused the community with a healthy new look.

Old Greenwood remains a steady producer with limited turnover. Look for the long anticipated release of The Legacy Residences from Old Greenwood in 2016.

Perhaps no other community was as impacted by successive dry winters as Northstar. This community has been poised for a major leap based upon substantial investment from Vail Resorts, Mountainside Partners and Kennedy-Wilson. Recent conditions have created a buying opportunity quickly realized through a stream of premium sales at the outset of 2016.

As the economy of Northern California continues to thrive, three generations of consumers are now drawn to Lake Tahoe as a place of retreat, refuge and adventure.

Tahoe Mountain Realty looks forward to 2016 as our inaugural year operating as an independently-owned brokerage company.  Our commitment to providing exceptional content, insight and service has only intensified. With new tools, an enhanced digital presence and the finest real estate gallery in the region, TMR is pleased to be your singular resource to a life well lived in Lake Tahoe.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012