June, 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

Despite being in the midst of the quiet season, real estate sales continue at a clip busier than is typical of the season. 168 properties are currently pending sale, 92 of which went into contract within the last 30 days.

While market conditions fluctuate based upon economic circumstances beyond the region, seasonality plays a meaningful role in the performance of real estate in the Tahoe area during cycles good and bad. The challenges of winter, including short days, difficult driving and seasonal leases often leave the market relatively constrained through the first two quarters of any given year. All things being equal, the latter two quarters will outperform the opening half of the year by about 40%.

Thus far, 2018 has been defined by historically tight supply contributing to a lesser volume of transactions which, in turn, have created upward pressure on values.  To quantify, inventory has hovered around 3 months’ supply for much of 2018. Balance in this category is considered to be about 6 months’. This has resulted in a 1% reduction in year-to-date transactions over the same period last year but a 6.5% increase in median price throughout the region. As is often the case, tight supply impacts lower price points more dramatically which gives greater weight to higher-end listings. Correspondingly, average price has surged from $865,000 in 2017 to just over $1,100,000 year-to-date.

Lakefront property sales of $40,000,000 and $7,500,000 have driven this surge.  The next 10 highest-dollar transactions have been homes in Martis Camp ranging from $4.4m - $8.8m. In fact, Martis Camp home sales already stand at 50% of 2017 full-year totals through just 5 months.

While market conditions have been extremely imbalanced for the several quarters, a glut of new offerings have been brought to market in the last 30 days nearly doubling the available supply. In total 263 new listings have been brought to market representing a 34% increase. This load brings the total inventory to 773 properties equal to 5 months’ supply. While still shy of the typical 6 month balance, this provides early summer consumers with a decent selection of product to view.

All of this adds up to market conditions prime for an active summer. Ample inventory, strong demand and quality product are a perfect formula to match the excellent summer seasons experienced in each of the last few years.

Katie Tyler

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012

March, 2018 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

A short month, during which a week is allocated to ski-related travel, often turns February into a hectic period for real estate sales. While the total volume of sales often drops, the premium segment of the Tahoe-Truckee market continues to thrive. This year the top end transactions in Northstar, Martis Camp, Old Greenwood and waterfront property on Lake Tahoe all transacted at extremely healthy numbers.

The winners of the season are, without question, savvy sellers taking advantage of laughably low inventory by coming to market now with extremely limited competition. Current sellers face less than 3 months’ supply across all market sectors; and just 3 weeks’ supply in prices below $1,000,000. 

Even premium price points, those above $1 million, are feeling the effects of limited inventory. Where balance typically exists at 1 year’s supply, current inventory offers just under 7 months.

A few specifics:

Gray’s Crossing   10 active listings           26 sales (past 12 months)  4.6 months’ supply

Old Greenwood      5 active listings          15 sales                              3.9 months’ supply

Lahontan               10 active listings          20 sales                              6 months’ supply

Martis Camp         20 active listings          44 sales                              5.5 months’ supply

Northstar               52 active listings          110 sales                             5.6 months’ supply

Two communities offer interesting case studies on the current phenomenon.

Lahontan, the trailblazing resort community, transacted a single home in the first half of 2017. At the time, Lahontan was shaking out a value differentiation for older properties versus updated homes. Year to date 2018, every home listed below $2,000,000 has been absorbed subsequently pushing momentum into higher price points that now show homes pending sale at $2,495,000 and $3,150,000. The 10 remaining homes range in price from $2,490,000 to $4,889,000.

In Tahoe Donner, the bell weather community for the Tahoe-Truckee region, more homes are currently pending than available listings; a previously unseen phenomenon that rewards those willing to shortcut the typical spring listing period. In fact, with conditions so heavily weighted against buyers, a seller wishing to leaseback or seek some other concession to extend time in their mountain home may be accommodated.

With new snow on the ground and market momentum building, the balance of ski season promises to be a busy period for real estate activity.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

BRE 01442453

c 530 277 1012