Accepting
that resort, second-home purchases are driven almost entirely by emotion, it is
understandable that uncertainty around the proposed Tax Bill may lead to some
level of concern. We validate that concern and offer a few thoughts as to how
these changes may impact Tahoe real estate.
Wealth
permitting, the ultimate driver of demand for second homes will always be the
intrinsic value, or benefit, derived from owning this property. Referencing
Tahoe specifically, these drivers often include:
- Health and wellness
- Family experience
- Adventure
Financial
incentives to promote second homeownership are certainly helpful and may aid in
affording incrementally more expensive properties, but are rarely the deciding
factor for consumers much in the same way that interest rate fluctuations do
not greatly impact our region. Investors directly motivated by financial
incentives are more typically drawn toward conventional commercial offerings rather
than the resort residential sector.
The
most tangible economic driver of demand for second homeownership is overall
wealth creation. Unlike primary home purchases, these acquisitions are
made entirely with disposable income. Thus marginal changes to effective tax
rates may not be enough to have a meaningful impact on overall demand so long
as our Northern California feeder market continues to be such a powerful
economic engine. Given the emotional nature of second home purchases, the
greatest threat to demand is an erosion of consumer confidence relative to
their own long-term ability to grow wealth.
The
most meaningful shift in consumer behavior may be the re-classification of
second homes to investment property. This trend has already been gaining momentum
as demand for vacation rental property (otherwise known as nightly rentals),
largely driven by the same wealthy Northern Californians, has grown
exponentially in recent years. The phenomena enhanced by the upspring of rental
management services including AirBnB has created an environment in which
homeowners can offset carry costs making their own vacation time less
expensive, or even profitable. While restrictions on personal use of investment
property may be a limiting factor, tax advantages may push an increasing number
of consumers in this direction.
In
summary, we believe there may be some near-term correction to the Tahoe market
as consumers adjust to their new financial realities, however the long-term
demand for the region is likely to be unchanged though subject to typical
market cycles.
Katie Tyler