2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update : June

2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update 

June

The final remnants of a disruptive winter are visible in the performance of the local real estate market over the past 30 days. It may appear disingenuous to describe a market that lags sales volume of the prior year by 10% as ‘frothy’ however the first hints of summer activity have that feel.

May, 2017 saw 109 residential real estate closings; an excellent number by historical standards but a full 25 sales (19%) behind the same period in 2016. Factors divergent from the prior year include limited inventory and, more notably, a winter in which access to the region was limited based upon near historic snowfall. Appreciating that May closings are typically a function of March and April market conditions and, likely, January and February visitation, the challenge in showing real property is obvious. 

Positive indicators for the season to come include limited inventory, currently at just five months’ supply, and a meaningful leap in average and median pricing. May saw the average sale price leap to $889,620, a 13% increase over the same month last year indicative of upward pricing pressure as well as a bias toward more premium residential offerings. The latter point is best demonstrated by a quick resurgence for premiere lakefront property. In a typical year, waterfront sales are back loaded to the final two quarters of the year as prospective owners experience the splendor of Lake Tahoe before making a purchasing decision. Already in 2017, 7 lakefront properties have transacted at median pricing nearly 40% higher than the cumulative 2016 values. Chief among these are two transactions cresting $10,000,000. With compelling inventory and a full lake, the lakefront niche is clearly in store for a banner year.

Similarly, the temperature for the overall market is rising. Memorial Day is typically a quiet time for new showings around Truckee and Lake Tahoe. More often, existing homeowners visit to ready homes for summer while consumers contemplate a visit around the July 4 holiday.  The sensational winter and stunning weather inspired crowds far larger than normal to visit this year at witnessed by full restaurants and abundant real estate tours. 200 sales are currently pending in the Tahoe Sierra MLS of which 169 are scheduled to close in June. Among these are many properties that may have otherwise transacted during winter including the final Stellar Townhouse in Northstar’s Mountainside community, two other premium Northstar properties, a Martis Camp home, two Lahontan residences and a stunning custom home in Alpine Meadows.

Historical data shows a steady rise in residential sales month over month through Q3. Currently market dynamics appear to validate this trend driving toward a fourth consecutive $1 billion year for Tahoe Truckee real estate

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: Q1

2017 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

1st Quarter

Real estate in the Truckee-Tahoe region continues to exude optimism with posting a very strong opening quarter to 2017 despite challenges from road closures, power outages and other events created by prolific winter snowfall.

Results from Q1 were remarkably similar to those of the same period in 2016; a year that would become arguably the best ever for property in this region. Median price leapt 14% year over year while total sales trailed by 7% indicative of tight inventory. Year-to-date sales volume totaled nearly $250,000,000 foretelling a 5^th consecutive $1 billion year. 

Luxury sales followed a predictable course as ski resort properties experienced the immediate dividends of near historic snowfall. The Village at Northstar doubled the number of transactions during Q1, 2016 and has nearly equaled the total for the preceding 12 months in just the first quarter of this year. Northstar Mountainside saw explosive growth as its Stellar Townhomes have sold through nearly all available residences with momentum building around other slopeside properties.

Martis Camp sold the last of its 671 developer homesites completed among the more remarkable runs of luxury sales throughout the country in recent times. An additional 9 homes have transacted in Martis Camp during Q1 at an average price of $3,864,642.  

A seasonal outlier during this period was the sale of two lakefront sales on Tahoe’s West Shore. At $13,975,000 and $15,000,000 these represent two of the top ten sales ever recorded on the California side and, but for a $17,500,000 sale in September, 2016, the highest individual transactions since 2014.  In addition to the rare 8-digit pricing of these transaction, completed such transactions, for which land value is paramount, amidst head-height walls of snow is extraordinary. Despite the pendulum having swung dramatically toward newer, amenitized communities in recent years, lakefront property remains the pinnacle of Tahoe homeownership.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Tahoe Truckee Market Update: November

Tahoe Truckee Market Update

November 

October, 2016 offered the most balanced period for Tahoe-Truckee real estate in some time. While the market has performed spectacularly for much of 2016, the activity has been concentrated in certain, high-performing communities.

Martis Camp has taken an overwhelming share of the luxury segment year-to-date; though 2 sales in October at $4,560,000 and $5,545,000 is more sustainable. Similarly, lakefront property saw the $10,000,000 barrier broken for the second time in 2016 with an $11,000,000 transaction on the West Shore. Other activity in the luxury segment included a Squaw Valley home ($3,250,000); two homes in Lahontan ($2,400,000, $2,550,000), a premium Great Bear condominium in Northstar Village ($1,780,000) and a Gray’s Crossing home at ($1,440,000) in addition to several others scattered throughout the region.

Median price remained steady at $552,000 while average price dropped slightly from recent months to $823,895. The latter statistic represents the more balanced performance whereby sales are more evenly dispersed among price ranges.

> $1,000,000                           23

$500,000 - $1,000,000            63

< $500,000                              60

While this metric lacks the pizazz of recent months, it is ultimately far more sustainable.

The total number of real estate transactions in October is quite robust by any objective standard, however it does represent a slightly earlier-than-normal beginning to the year-end taper typical of this market. Coming out of the busiest 3^rd quarter on record for the region, particularly in an election year, a small pull back was to be expected.

Nevertheless, early snow has piqued interest in winter accommodations and pending transactions remain strong with over 180 residential sales pending with November close dates. While the last quarter of any year is often calm, steady demand appears to offer a promising finish to 2016. 

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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2016 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: October

2016 Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

October

The third quarter of 2016 was statistically the strongest 90-day period ever for real estate in the Tahoe Truckee area. 522 residential properties traded hands over this span representing just under $500 million in total volume at an average price of $893,000.

Similarly, year-to-date figures for the region through 3 quarters already exceed many 12-month periods in the recent past. Total sales volume has exceeded $1 billion for the fourth consecutive year exceeding annual totals from 2006-2013. The number of transactions exceeding $1,000,000, $2,000,000 and $5,000,000 already exceed 2015 totals.

Much of the region’s high dollar activity has been concentrated in certain resort communities, namely including Martis Camp which has consolidated an overwhelming 18% share of the local market, however nearly every segment has shown increased velocity.

Despite these exceptional figures, values appear to moving along steadily rather than surging with high volatility that could indicate a corresponding crash. Median price has risen a steady 5% year over year.

Unlike the bubble years of 2004-2006, this run seems to be built on a stronger foundation. Leverage is minimal with tighter lending regulations requiring stronger underwriting standards and generally higher down payments. Low interest rates, while not a primary driver of purchasing decisions for vacation homes, have made carry costs more affordable on a relative basis offsetting increasing purchase prices. 

Most notably, the economic conditions driving Tahoe real estate continue to be robust. Bay Area job growth has fueled the wealth creation integral to seeking and affording discretionary purchases like a home in Tahoe. Despite local prices being on the rise, values in comparison to many Bay Area markets are strong creating move-down opportunities for families looking to relocate and able to telecommute or otherwise generate income away from urban centers.

In addition to consumer driven purchases fueling the market, capital investors have taken notice of the demand for quality housing in the Tahoe-Truckee region. Last week, a $42.5 million deal was announced for developable land near the Heavenly base in South Lake Tahoe. Numerous other projects from Squaw Valley and Northstar to Kings Beach and Tahoe City are in the works hoping to deliver new, modern product to a thirsty population of consumers.

The 4^th quarter is often a quieter time of year with most resort consumers out of the region until ski season. With 262 currently pending with close dates scheduled prior to year’s end, it appears momentum will carry through the end of 2016.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: May, 2016

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

May, 2016 

For generations of consumers waterfront property has been the gold standard of prestigious Lake Tahoe real estate. The finite supply of privately owned lakefront parcels combined with the legendary tales of the characters who owned them created the rarest of air in this mountain environment.

As lakeside properties have aged, combined with a restrictive regulatory environment, new and exciting planned communities have emerged with Truckee addresses that have created an entirely new definition of luxury. Offering open space, direct connection to skiing and comprehensive amenity packages, these communities have appealed to a new generation of consumer for whom Lake Tahoe waterfront has become a nice-to-have but hardly an essential part of the equation.

In April 2016 alone, 11 properties in the Tahoe Truckee region traded for amounts greater than $1,500,000. Of these, 9 were in communities in the Martis Valley versus just two in the Tahoe Basin. Martis Camp alone transacted 6 home sales including a record high $8,900,000 for a property backing to neither skiing nor golf; rather National Forest offering the most immediate possible connection to a world of recreation. In all of 2015 there were only 11 lakefront sales on the north and west shores of Lake Tahoe.

Beyond Martis Camp, Northstar’s Mountainside saw a $3,500,000 closing within the Stellar Collection providing a substantial value on slopeside living.  Lahontan and Schaffer’s Mill similarly participated in the region’s surge of activity in the luxury segment.

In 2016, 6 lakefront properties have traded at an average of $4,320,000. Average price in Martis Camp is $4,867,000 year-to-date with more than double the number of transactions.

The overall Tahoe Truckee market continues on a strong pace for 2016. While the number of transactions fell 5% month over month; a phenomena typical of the season, average price is soaring by 16% largely driven by the sales references above. From April, sales typically grow progressively through October. This trend was exacerbated in 2015 by a lackluster winter causing a lackluster first half only to see momentum soar in the latter half.

At the end of a strong comeback winter, a more gradual growth curve is likely. Nevertheless, market conditions continue to indicate steady growth in the months to come.

A series of late spring storms have created a unique circumstance whereby the end of skiing and the opening of hiking, biking and golf season have blurred. Regardless of the sport, spring promises to be exceptional.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: March, 2016

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update 

March, 2016 

The narrative surrounding real estate in the Tahoe-Truckee resort market this winter has closely mirrored the ski season itself. As the first indications of a strong winter became evident, a flurry of activity beset the region. These transactions were largely consumers having expressed interest in the past who needed a vote of confidence from Mother Nature to make a final purchasing decision. 

As the snow continued through the holidays, the region saw a remarkably steady flow of visitors who reengaged with the sport and the region in a way that reinvigorated a curiosity for making a more permanent home in the mountains. This activity begat results for February that built upon an already steady start to the year with 91 total transactions, up 7% from the previous month and 23% year over year. More notably, the constitution of these transactions was decidedly upscale as average price leapt 23% from February, 2015 to $972,000. Notable among these include 5 Martis Camp homes at an average price of $6,860,000 including a transaction over $7 million by Tahoe Mountain Realty, the second largest transaction ever recorded in that community. Additionally, Northstar’s resurgence included the second consecutive month with a transaction from TMR greater than $3,000,000 in Big Springs as well as three other premium sales. 

Yet February brought warm temperatures and easy traveling allowing an even greater number of guests to experience an exceptional winter season under ideal weather conditions. Like the winter, now poised to reestablish snow levels through an impending atmospheric river, the real estate market appears ready to launch to even greater heights. With 46 sales currently pending above $1,000,000 communities including Martis Camp with 7 sales currently pending at $4,800,000 average and Northstar Mountainside with 3 sales pending at over $10,000,000 total volume, near term success appears as abundant as snowfall. 

In general, the market remains vibrant and optimistic but has not yet hit its full potential. The second wave of winter will come just in time to inspire consumers to visit under the best possible circumstances to inspire a visit to our showroom. 

We will be waiting with great enthusiasm. 

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: February, 2016

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

February, 2016 

Occasionally the dynamics of the Tahoe-Truckee real estate market are quite simple. Amidst the best start to winter since 2011, with arguably perfect ski conditions, the local real estate market is off to a raucous beginning of 2016. Though historically the worst month for closed transactions, January saw 82 sales at an average price of $918,745; increases of 8% and 5% respectively. These sales reflect pent up demand for mountain resort property and were acquired by consumers anxious to lock in their family retreat in time to enjoy the entire season. 

January was so strong that the total number of transactions equals the largest January in over a decade. Similarly, the average sales price reflective of premium resort property has not been seen this time of year since 2007.

Notable sales included 14 homes over $1,000,000. Among them were two Northstar homes doubling the number of premium single-family sales at the resort for all of 2015, three Martis Camp homes, and a lakefront on Tahoe’s West Shore for over $7,000,000. 

Following the North Lake Tahoe real estate trend, closed transactions most closely reflect market conditions 30-60 days prior when buyers and sellers reached agreement. As such, January’s results foretell a major return to prominence for ski resort property. Already this year there are 14 Northstar properties pending sale; nearly 25% of all 2015 sales. Indicative of the value that is now tangible in mountainside properties the average sale pending price is $1,174,046; a quantum leap from the average of $749,000 in 2015. Noteworthy sales in the coming month include two additional single family homes in Northstar’s Big Springs neighborhood for amounts greater than $3,000,000, a Stellar Residence in Northstar’s Mountainside community asking $3,100,000 and two Ritz Carlton Residences.

An additional five homes are now pending sale in Martis Camp, two in Lahontan and one each in Old Greenwood, Gray’s Crossing, and Schaffer’s Mill. 

Inventory will be an interesting metric to monitor as the year progresses. Supply is currently well balanced at just under six months. Typically inventory levels swell a bit this time of year as the sales cycle takes several months to gain momentum. With a sensational winter afoot, guests are anxious to replicate joyful experiences on the mountain several more times over the course of a winter. Some number of these consumers will elect to make a more permanent investment in mountain lifestyle.  Recent crowds may indicate that fewer options may be available for those who wait until later in the season. 

We hope that you are getting more than your fair share of winter. Please let us know when you intend to visit next so that we can share with you some new and progressive projects taking shape in our area. 

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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November, 2015 Tahoe Truckee Market Update

November, 2015 Tahoe Truckee Market Update

As the first snow of the season falls, the Tahoe Truckee community is abuzz with anticipation of the winter to come. In many ways, this early November accumulation already exceeds that of last winter and has buoyed spirits at a critical moment heading into winter. The Tahoe real estate market seems equally primed with exciting resort properties coming online to meet this renewed demand. Recent sales activity has been steady, if unspectacular, as if waiting for this snowfall to make a dramatic surge forward. 

Year over year, October was fundamentally even with 2014 in the number of transactions as well as average price. At 146 total residential sales, both years represent strong performances against historical trends. The chart below demonstrates that over a the past decade, October is typically the annual peak for the number of sales in a given year. While October 2015 trended slightly below a very robust September, it is well above the historical average of 134. 

The local market showcased an interesting phenomenon this past month. While sales units were generally consistent with the previous year, average price was down 4% from $769,000 to $738,000; reflective of the segment of luxury buyers missing from the market in the first half of 2015. Conversely, median price rose year over year from $511,000 in 2014 to $551,000; an 8% increase. 

Delving into these figures a bit more deeply, the range between $600,000 - $900,000 leapt by nearly double to 32 transactions in October. This would seem to indicate a new trend emerging in the local market. While many of these transaction represent our typical second homeowner purchasing in anticipation of the winter season to come, a new group of young families looking to move equity from their homes in higher-density, urban markets to a mountain community that promotes a  healthier standard of living. 

The $600,000 - $900,000 price range offers a level of comfort in the space between entry-level and luxury that is appealing to these professionals who identify as high-earners but are not yet wealthy (HENRYs = High Earners, Not Rich Yet). This emerging demographic is bringing professional-class jobs to the region transcending the typical mountain economy based entirely around service and trades. With significant spending power, this group is driving cultural innovations throughout the region including diverse education options, new and exciting dining choices and greater recreation selections that will help smooth out the seasonality of the local economy. 
Further, with seemingly limitless earning potential, this group is likely to find upward mobility in the coming years providing a continuous cycle of demand for property throughout the region. 

As we are now within weeks of opening the most anticipated ski season, perhaps ever, there is much to be excited about. I look forward to keeping you informed as the Tahoe Truckee region realizes its full potential. 

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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Tahoe-Truckee Market Update: August, 2015

Tahoe-Truckee Market Update

August, 2015 

As forecast in our most recent update, July, 2015 showed the strongest performance for real estate in the Tahoe-Truckee region across the board. With year-to-date highs for total sales (134), average price ($815,708) and median price ($526,878), as well as the first month this year to crest nine figures for total sales volume ($109,304,945).

Most significantly, the luxury market came alive with 21 total sales topping $1,000,000; nearly double the previous high for any month this year. Somewhat surprisingly, the geography of these luxury sales was distributed more broadly than is typical for heart of summer.  Beyond many lakeside sales typical of the season, several acreage properties scattered around the outskirts of Truckee traded along with luxury homes in Gray’s Crossing, Lahontan and Schaffer’s Mill. Perhaps most notably, two properties sold within Northstar’s Mountainside neighborhood breaking from typical seasonal trends and foreshadowing the release of demand pent-up from winters past.

In our recent Tahoe Mountain Report, we discussed the momentum typical of the second half of any given year to bring up to 35% more sales than in the first half. With July clearly bearing this out, we expect the rest of 2015 to be dramatically the same. In just the past 30 days, 150 properties are newly pending sale including 40 at asking prices above $1,000,000. Among these are 11 Martis Camp homes at an average price near $3,500,000, 8 Schaffer’s Mill residences and 3 Lahontan homes.

With the height of the purchasing season still ahead of us, overall market demand appears strong. As we near the start of school for many families, final summer vacations will begin to blend with ambitions for a great ski season. These forces typically combine to bring strong activity to all market segments as we head into fall.

We look forward to keeping up you updated as to the dynamics of the Lake Tahoe real estate market as events unfold.

Katie Tyler

Realtor®

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